Process-evaluation of forest aerosol-cloud-climate feedback shows clear evidence from observations and large uncertainty in models.

Natural aerosol feedbacks are expected to become more important in the future, as anthropogenic aerosol emissions decrease due to air quality policy. One such feedback is initiated by the increase in biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions with higher temperatures, leading to higher secondary organic aerosol (SOA) production and a cooling of the surface via impacts on cloud radiative properties. Motivated by the considerable spread in feedback strength in Earth System Models (ESMs), we here use two long-term observational datasets from boreal and tropical forests, together with satellite data, for a process-based evaluation of the BVOC-aerosol-cloud feedback in four ESMs. The model evaluation shows that the weakest modelled feedback estimates can likely be excluded, but highlights compensating errors making it difficult to draw conclusions of the strongest estimates. Overall, the method of evaluating along process chains shows promise in pin-pointing sources of uncertainty and constraining modelled aerosol feedbacks.

Threefold reduction of modeled uncertainty in direct radiative effects over biomass burning regions by constraining absorbing aerosols.

Absorbing aerosols emitted from biomass burning (BB) greatly affect the radiation balance, cloudiness, and circulation over tropical regions. Assessments of these impacts rely heavily on the modeled aerosol absorption from poorly constrained global models and thus exhibit large uncertainties. By combining the AeroCom model ensemble with satellite and in situ observations, we provide constraints on the aerosol absorption optical depth (AAOD) over the Amazon and Africa. Our approach enables identification of error contributions from emission, lifetime, and MAC (mass absorption coefficient) per model, with MAC and emission dominating the AAOD errors over Amazon and Africa, respectively. In addition to primary emissions, our analysis suggests substantial formation of secondary organic aerosols over the Amazon but not over Africa. Furthermore, we find that differences in direct aerosol radiative effects between models decrease by threefold over the BB source and outflow regions after correcting the identified errors. This highlights the potential to greatly reduce the uncertainty in the most uncertain radiative forcing agent.

Modeling non-linear changes in an urban setting: From pro-environmental affordances to responses in behavior, emissions and air quality.

Interactions in urban environment were investigated using a multidisciplinary model combination, with focus on traffic, emissions and atmospheric particles. An agent-based model was applied to simulate the evolution of unsustainable human behavior (usage of combustion-based personal vehicles) as a function of pro-environmental affordances (opportunities for sustainable choices). Scenarios regarding changes in multi-pollutant emissions were derived, and the non-linear implications to atmospheric particles were simulated with a box model. Based on the results for a Nordic city, increasing pro-environmental affordances by 10%, 50% or 100% leads to emission reductions of 15%, 30% and 40% within 2 years. To reduce ambient particle mass, emissions from traffic should decrease by > 15%, while the lung deposited surface area decreases in all scenarios ([Formula: see text], [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text], correspondingly). The presented case is representative of one season, but the approach is generic and applicable to simulating a full year, given meteorological and pollution data that reflects seasonal variation. This work emphasizes the necessity to consider feedback mechanisms and non-linearities in both human behavior and atmospheric processes, when predicting the outcomes of changes in an urban system.

Using modelled relationships and satellite observations to attribute modelled aerosol biases over biomass burning regions.

Biomass burning (BB) is a major source of aerosols that remain the most uncertain components of the global radiative forcing. Current global models have great difficulty matching observed aerosol optical depth (AOD) over BB regions. A common solution to address modelled AOD biases is scaling BB emissions. Using the relationship from an ensemble of aerosol models and satellite observations, we show that the bias in aerosol modelling results primarily from incorrect lifetimes and underestimated mass extinction coefficients. In turn, these biases seem to be related to incorrect precipitation and underestimated particle sizes. We further show that boosting BB emissions to correct AOD biases over the source region causes an overestimation of AOD in the outflow from Africa by 48%, leading to a double warming effect compared with when biases are simultaneously addressed for both aforementioned factors. Such deviations are particularly concerning in a warming future with increasing emissions from fires.

Significance of the organic aerosol driven climate feedback in the boreal area.

Aerosol particles cool the climate by scattering solar radiation and by acting as cloud condensation nuclei. Higher temperatures resulting from increased greenhouse gas levels have been suggested to lead to increased biogenic secondary organic aerosol and cloud condensation nuclei concentrations creating a negative climate feedback mechanism. Here, we present direct observations on this feedback mechanism utilizing collocated long term aerosol chemical composition measurements and remote sensing observations on aerosol and cloud properties. Summer time organic aerosol loadings showed a clear increase with temperature, with simultaneous increase in cloud condensation nuclei concentration in a boreal forest environment. Remote sensing observations revealed a change in cloud properties with an increase in cloud reflectivity in concert with increasing organic aerosol loadings in the area. The results provide direct observational evidence on the significance of this negative climate feedback mechanism.

Biomass burning aerosols in most climate models are too absorbing.

Uncertainty in the representation of biomass burning (BB) aerosol composition and optical properties in climate models contributes to a range in modeled aerosol effects on incoming solar radiation. Depending on the model, the top-of-the-atmosphere BB aerosol effect can range from cooling to warming. By relating aerosol absorption relative to extinction and carbonaceous aerosol composition from 12 observational datasets to nine state-of-the-art Earth system models/chemical transport models, we identify varying degrees of overestimation in BB aerosol absorptivity by these models. Modifications to BB aerosol refractive index, size, and mixing state improve the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) agreement with observations, leading to a global change in BB direct radiative effect of -0.07 W m-2, and regional changes of -2 W m-2 (Africa) and -0.5 W m-2 (South America/Temperate). Our findings suggest that current modeled BB contributes less to warming than previously thought, largely due to treatments of aerosol mixing state.

The atmospheric impacts of initiatives advancing shifts towards low-emission mobility: A scoping review.

In an urban environment, people's daily traffic choices are reflected in emissions and the resulting local air composition, or air quality. Traffic contributes to the emissions of both carbon dioxide (CO2), affecting climate, and particulate matter (PM), affecting atmospheric chemistry and human health. While the development of city infrastructure is not in the hands of individuals, it is their transport mode choices that constitute traffic. In this scoping review we analyse 108 initiatives from around the world potentially influencing individual travel behaviour and producing changes in the shares of different transport modes (modal shifts). The targets, types and techniques of initiatives are identified. Examples of economic, regulative, structural and persuasive initiatives are included. Special focus is on whether the impacts on CO2 emissions, PM emissions and/or PM concentrations have been quantitatively evaluated, and on the quality and results of the evaluations. We observe that a variety of targets can motivate actions that lead to modal shifts and emission reductions. The results indicate that the level of atmospheric evaluations is low: absolute or relative changes in emissions and/or concentrations had been evaluated for only 31% (N = 34) of the reviewed initiatives, with substantial heterogeneity in quality. Sanctions, such as congestion charge and restrictions, have more likely been evaluated in peer reviewed analyses than incentives. Scientific evaluations of impacts on ambient PM concentrations are especially scarce (N = 4), although Air Quality is the primary target of 13% of actions and secondary target for at least 12%. We discuss the determinants of success and failure, when it comes to different types of initiatives, emission reductions and evaluations. A high-quality evaluation of atmospheric impacts captures the following: correct data about the modal shift (rate and direction), exclusion of external factors affecting the shift and emissions, and possible indirect impacts of the shift.

Discrimination of aerosol types over the Tehran city using 5 years (2011-2015) of MODIS collection 6 aerosol products.

PURPOSE: Tehran, Iran, is an interesting location for aerosol studies because it is affected by anthropogenic pollution and desert dust aerosols. The aim of this study was to discriminate the aerosol types using satellite data over the city. METHOD: The study was performed using Level-2 daily Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) and Ångström Exponent (AE) data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments on board the Terra and Aqua satellites for the years 2011 to 2015. As the Deep Blue (DB) AE retrievals are more reliable than the Dark Target (DT) AE retrievals, the study was performed using DB data. RESULTS: The number of granules with successful retrievals (at least in two pixels with AODs >0.2 over Tehran with high quality assurance) was 200, which indicates that aerosols could be observed in 5.47% (200 from 3652 of Terra and Aqua granules) of the overpasses during the study period. The maximum and minimum values of AOD occurred during May (0.32 ± 0.27) and August (0.18 ± 0.07), respectively. Based on the AOD vs. AE data, aerosols were classified into three different categories: urban/industry (UI), Desert Dust (DD) and Mixed (Mix). To improve the accuracy of the aerosol classification, the analysis was limited to retrievals with AOD values larger than 0.2. The DD, UI and Mix types had 48.5%, 30.5% and 21% contribution in the aerosol days, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The maximum DD frequency was observed in the spring and summer seasons, while the UI type had its maximum during the cold season. The AOD of the DD type (over Tehran) correlated well with the AOD observations done at the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) site in Zanjan (300 km northwest from Tehran). For the UI type, no relationship with the AERONET AOD was detected. This gives confidence in our aerosol typing as the contribution of dust in the aerosol load is mainly from long-range transport, whereas the urban aerosols originate from local sources. Back trajectories ending in Tehran show that the northeast and west trajectories are two main transport routes for the dust to the study area.